A PANORAMIC LOOK AT THE DIFFERENT CONSPIRACY THEORIES OF THE BOKO HARAM INSURGENCY

Nigeria is at a climacteric stage in her fifty-four years of tumultuous post-colonial existence and the whole world has tuned in to watch how she will survive the scourge that is currently plaguing her. The menacing presence of Boko Haram in the country, especially in the North Eastern part, has planted the seeds of fear and paranoia in the minds of Nigerians. More worrisome is the unfelt presence of a clueless government, whose impotence only compounds the country’s woes.

It’s almost a month since these Islamic terrorists abducted 276 teenage girls from a school in Chibok, Borno State, and the hope of rescuing them from their abductors keeps fading with time. To the chagrin of many Nigerians at home and in diaspora, the Nigerian government failed to act and react swiftly to the incident and its ineptitude made it a worthy recipient of the barrage of criticisms the public meted out.

Protests were staged across the country and a wave of anti-terrorism campaigns swept across the social media. The famous #BringBackTheGirls hashtag found its way into the hands of celebrities and world leaders, and also travelled without visa to countries that joined the campaign in solidarity and out of sympathy.

However, it is vital to note that the involvement of the US and the entire international community is not the long-term solution to this Boko Haram malaise. Rather than seeking measures that are reactive, the government must be proactive in its fight against terrorism and ensure its permanent eradication from our land. But then, how does one proffer a solution to a problem with an unknown cause. Not even the President can explain the real cause or objective of this terrorist group and he is not alone on that.

Owing to this conundrum, many conspiracy theories have been postulated to delineate the Boko Haram phenomenon and they have been highlighted in subsequent paragraphs. I have grouped the theories into two schools of thoughts- internalists and externalists- and each offers a distinct explanation, interpretation and perception of Boko Haram and its cause. 

THE INTERNALISTS

The internalists believe the enemies are within. They subscribe to the notion that the insurgency is an internally premeditated operation of either the group itself or some faceless but powerful interior forces with an evil agenda. This school of thoughts opined three theories that are possible ways of explaining the insurgency. 

The Islamization Theory

In 2002, Muhammed Yusuf founded Boko Haram with the sole purpose of establishing an Islamic state that is ruled by Sharia Law, thereby opposing anything Western, particularly education. This is the most popular theory and some internalists believe the group has not digressed from its cause till date. The sect is allegedly affiliated to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and this alliance has strengthened and reinforced the group to carry out more deadly attacks. Boko Haram has launched many pogroms against Christian churches, schools and properties in the North killing over 10,000 people between 2009-2013.

The North’s Political Agenda Theory

Some internalists believe Boko Haram is more than a religious sect. They are of the opinion that some Northern politicians who are bent on promoting political instability to make the nation ungovernable for the Jonathan administration hijacked the sect and sponsored their terrorist acts. This theory draws evidence from past statements made by some Northern leaders who avowed that if a Northern Muslim did not become the President in 2011 the country would be ungovernable. While this theory has the highest level of plausibility compared to others, the only loophole is that Boko Haram’s insurrection started gaining momentum before the late President Yar’adua (a Northerner) died in office.

The Anti-North Theory

Some Northerners accused the present government and even the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) of being the masterminds behind the insurgency, which has so far only happened in the North. They affirm that there is an anti-North conspiracy in the country and the main aim is to ensure the prevalence of turmoil in the region and make Northern Muslims look like perpetrators of the numerous attacks on Christians. They posit that it is a ploy to make the North look bad and also a subtle way of discouraging the people in that region from political participation in 2015. This theory has the cloak of ridiculousness all over it and here is why: First, most of the victims of the Haramites have been Christians; second, few years ago, some of the members of this group were arrested in the houses of some notable Northern politicians which invalidates the argument of this theory.

THE EXTERNALISTS

The externalists are of the view that Boko Haram is an externally sponsored terrorist group that has been given the responsibility of rousing tension in the country for the benefit of such external forces. Two theories fall under this category:

The US/CIA Operation Theory

Just last week, an article was circulated on social media and it revealed the involvement of the US government in the Boko Haram saga. According to reports, in December 2011, an Algeria-based CIA wing gave out 40 million naira as a planned long term partnership with Boko Haram with a pledge” to do more”. The essence is to foster the disintegration of Nigeria by 2015.

The National Intelligence Council of the United States estimated that Nigeria will disintegrate by 2015 and this has been termed as a coded statement of intention of the United States to dismember Nigeria using destabilization and every other means necessary. In Africa, Nigeria is seen as an economic and political threat to the interests of the US and its Western allies therefore, they intend to contain the country. Zinos Alexander, the owner of giftedgreen.com, wrote:

Why would the United States want to disintegrate Nigeria? 
The Liberia civil war was a subversive activity of the CIA and Nigeria-led ECOMOG was able to contain the Liberian crisis without any significant intervention from any of the western powers. Nigeria’s role in helping southern African countries in the 70’s and the 80’s was also a clear opposition and defiance to the interest of the United States and its western allies. Boko Haram is just a means to an end – disintegration of Nigeria. The main aim of Boko Haram is to stir unrest in Nigeria. When the unrest is at its peak, the crisis will be made an international issue and the US will call for a UN intervention.

The US is now involved in the Chibok case and the plot thickens….

The Bill Gates Theory

Global Profile Alliance (GPA) recently accused Bill Gates and Monsanto of being the architects of the Boko Haram insurgency. According to the chairman of GPA, ‘the major aim of the insurgency was to capture the food security of Nigeria and control Africa’s largest nation by population and economy… this could only be possible by fighting to displace the indigenous farmers in the country and replace them with Genetically Modified Organisms, GMOs corporate farms in the North East food basket region of Nigeria’.

He also claimed that Liberians and Sierre-Leoneans were brought to Nigeria as ECOMOG boys to fight as Boko Haram. He criticized the electronic wallets (cell phones) given to farmers by Bill Gates through the Federal Ministry of Agriculture. In his opinion, ‘the cell phones’ are a tracking device for selective elimination.

Although these theories might be seen as mere speculations and unconfirmed postulations, the truth definitely lies somewhere among these two sets of conjectures. Some might seem implausible while others might have credible traces of facts within them. But one thing is certain- the government has a lot to do in unearthing the truth. That is the first step towards the journey of seeking a solution; unfortunately, the government has no clue on how to embark on it at the moment. If I were Jonathan, I wouldn’t rule out the views of the externalists though. #justsaying

Adedapo Adebajo